First Chance for Accumulating Snow
The cooler air has arrived across the Twin Tiers and it is here to stay for the rest of this weekend and into next weekend as well. Temperatures will remain below average for the majority of the week and we could also be looking at our first chance for accumulating snow here in the Twin Tiers. As we head into Thursday night we could be looking at snow falling across the region. This is NOT set in stone as there are still many questions surrounding this system.
One of those questions is timing. The timing will play a key role because if moisture moves into the region during the day hours on Thursday then we could see more in the way of rain falling across the region as temperatures near the surface will be too warm for precipitation to fall as snow. There is the other side of the timing issue and that's the one which could bring us accumulating snow. If the moisture moves into the region for the overnight period Thursday into Friday then we will see temperatures fall into the mid 20s which will be sufficient enough for snow to fall across the region.
Another question with this upcoming system will be the strength. Our two global models, GFS & ECMWF are showing two solutions as of now for this system. GFS is showing two separate systems which leads to a weaker and warmer system because the colder air does not get dragged into the region as the southern piece of energy is too far south and suppressed by an area of high pressure. However, the other model, the ECMWF, is showing the two pieces of energy coming together which shows a big snowstorm for portions of the Central US and our region. This model is what we are leaning towards as of now because for storms past the GFS tends to swing towards the ECMWF's solution as the days get closer.
This system and the understanding of it are still ways away, but make sure you are prepared because of the pattern that will be set up across the Eastern US over the next week and make sure you stick here with us for the latest on any snowstorm threats for the season.