Severe Storm Chances Today
Today across the Twin Tiers, heat is the main headline but we could be watching out for a line of severe storms this evening as well. Today's severe weather forecast will be very finicky. A mesoscale convective system or MCS is over the Upper Great Lakes this morning with and associated cold front, and will try to roll eastward towards the Twin Tiers. A MCS is a line of thunderstorms capable of producing strong damaging winds, and this is what will be responsible for our severe weather today. Early this morning, this convective system has had a lot of steam and is out performing what models have said it will do, but questions still arise for what will happen later.
The first question is, will it continue to maintain strength? Models have not had a good handling of this line of storms early this morning. They have showed a much weaker system, but observational analysis says this is much stronger than models say. This is a worrying sign as it pushes east. As we push through the morning hours today we will get a better understanding of how this system will propagate. There is energy out ahead of this system early this morning for it to maintain strength, but there is also a lot off capping ahead of it as well which may slow and weaken convection. If this system works slow enough to avoid that capping until the sun bakes the ground over the Great Lakes then we will see this line of storms maintain strength, but if this system outruns its energy it will begin to fade and fall apart.
The second question. It coincides with the first one a little and it is, what time will it get to the Twin Tiers? Regardless of strength moving forward the timing of when it arrives will be important. A faster line of storms will mean it will arrive in the late afternoon with plenty of fuel with temperatures in the mid 90s. If that is the case then we can see a window of time, mainly west of Elmira, for damaging wind gusts before it weakens during the evening hours. A slower moving system will mean it arrives later in the evening and the fuel for these storms will be dwindling, and when it arrives it will be weakening and a small chance for damaging winds. Models right now have also not handled the forward motion of this system well. They continue to be behind where this system is right now and this is another concerning sign as it moves closer.
A better understanding of how this line effects us will be more understood as we head into the early afternoon hours. Nonetheless, there is a chance for a few pop up storms and the Storm Prediction Center still has at max a 2/5 on the severe weather scale for later this evening for the threat for strong gusty winds primarily. Stay weather alert and we will updated you when things become more clear.