We have a pretty active weather week ahead for the Twin Tiers as we will be going from Spring to Winter by the end of the week. Firstly, today, we will enjoy another Spring-like day with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s but we are watching an area of low pressure over the Central US right now that will deliver rain showers by Tuesday morning. This first area of low pressure will move into the Ohio River Valley and then eventually into the Twin Tiers by Wednesday morning. During that time we will see abundant shower activity. Expect showers to begin early Tuesday morning, right before that morning commute, and linger through the day. Heavier rain  is likely into the afternoon hours Tuesday before transitioning to spotty showers by late Tuesday night. We will be watching out early Tuesday morning, in the highest elevations, for temperatures to be hanging around freezing which will then cause some slick spots early on. By the afternoon the entire region will see temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s with those rain showers.

As we head into Wednesday, we will see spotty showers to start as the first area of low pressure pushes through the Twin Tiers and begins to weaken. Then in the afternoon hours on Wednesday, expect mainly cloudy skies with some spotty showers continuing, but overall a cloudy afternoon is expected before more rain moves in. During the afternoon hours Wednesday another area of low pressure will strengthen over the Midwest US and quickly move to our south, into the I95 corridor. We will be expecting rain, which could be heavy at times, to move in yet again by the early overnight period Wednesday. Before we get to the snow potential across the Twin Tiers, we could see anywhere from 1/4" of rain to 3/4" of rain in the heaviest of showers before the potential changeover.

This is where the uncertainty remains.

Going into Wednesday night, we are tracking a changeover from heavy rain to a burst of heavy snow and the uncertainty still remains on; 1) When will the changeover occur? And... 2) How heavy will the snow be for the areas that changeover? Models continue to be all over the place on when the changeover occurs and how heavy the snow will be. Right now, European model shows the changeover only occurring in the higher elevations and the heaviest of snowfall just east of the viewing area and towards the Binghamton and Capital region. GFS shows a faster moving solution and the changeover occurring later and the Twin Tiers does not even see any snow. While the NAM is very bullish and shows heavy snow through the overnight period and we wake up Thursday morning under up to 6" of snow. So, there is still a lot of uncertainty, but things will begin to be fully understood late tonight/early Tuesday morning.

Trends among these models over the past 24 hours have shown a slower progression of this system and this has important implications for the potential change over. A slower progression means that the door opens for colder air to be injected into the system and we see the change over to snow occur over the Twin Tiers. What is also important is the strength of the low over the east coast. A stronger East Coast low along with this slower progression will wrap in the cold air much quicker and stronger than a weaker system. Still, uncertainty looms with this system as of now so make sure you stick with us over the next 24-36 hours as we get a much better idea of what is to come.

Now, continuing into Thursday. Highs will peak early as cold air floods into the region with temperatures being knocked into the upper 20s by Thursday afternoon with breezy conditions. These breezy conditions will make wind chill values drop into the teens and single digits bey Thursday evening. The cold air lingers this time around as highs will struggle on Friday to make their way into the mid 20s along with breezy conditions. Along with the cold air Thursday and Friday, the lake-effect snow machine will be cranking and deliver the Twin Tiers the chance to see some snow showers throughout the day while real feels are in the teens.

A drying trend is likely on the way for the weekend, but temperatures remain in the mid 20s for highs and morning lows will be near 10 degrees and the single digits for many.

-Alex