We have been talking about the pattern turning more unsettled for about a week now, and the one word that has been used constantly is "uncertainty." We use this word when models show differing results or when we are too far out to exactly know the exact result. Yes, the pattern will be turning more unsettled and cooler next week but uncertainty remains in how much rain we could see here locally.

Just a few days ago, the two global models were showing differing outcomes for the middle of next weeks storm. Now, they have come to more of a consensus, but track is still uncertain for later in the week.This is how it looks like as of now. Monday, a cold front will begin to slowly move eastward from the Midwest and bring us increasing clouds with isolated shower chances as moisture is pumped in from the south. On Tuesday, it looks like a cold front will push through the Twin Tiers as a second area of low pressure rides up along that cold front and moves it eastward. We will be looking at a rather cloudy day with scattered shower activity. Rainfall accumulations through Tuesday look to be between .25" and .75" of rain. Very beneficial for the ongoing drought Then, it looks like we get a bit of a break Wednesday, but we still could see some isolated showers with moisture being pumped in from the south.

Thursday is where things still remain uncertain. An area of low pressure will move north over the Southeast US and ride along the East Coast, and the uncertainty remains in the exact track in which it takes. A more westerly track will allow us to see more rain locally. An easterly track will cause the heaviest of the rain axis to line up east of the Twin Tiers. The GFS and Euro are bickering on the result of this. Euro is showing a more western track, and the GFS shows an easterly track and the heaviest of the rain staying well east.

With what models have shown over the past week, there is still a lot that needs to be ironed out, but things have become clearer on what we will see for the majority of this week. We will continue to keep you updated on Thursday as things become clearer.

-Alex