Weather patterns signaling change towards La Nina pattern in Summer
(WENY) -- The Twin Tiers have seen unseasonable warmth this winter, but changes could be on the horizon as climate experts claim that this year's el Nino is weakening.
The Twin Tiers have seen unseasonable warmth a handful of times this winter, it's part of a warm winter trend thanks much in-part to a super el Nino in the Pacific. However, signs point to a weakening trend that could have effects on this year's summer and fall seasons.
So far, the Northern U.S. has been much warmer, and the Southern U.S. has been wetter and cooler, telltale signs of el Nino conditions. The West Coast has also endured atmospheric rivers that brought record rain and flooding.
The Climate Prediction Center is now observing signs for a flip to a la Nina pattern later this year. La Nina is the phenomenon where Pacific Ocean temperatures are lower than average. Local impacts of la Nina can result in warmer than average conditions -- as well as the potential for increased rainfall and storm activity.
"Typically, in a La Nina pattern you get less wind shear, which would be more conducive to tropical development, so more tropical systems, more hurricanes in a la Nina year. That would increase the potential for us getting affected here in the Twin Tiers. Not necessarily getting directly impacted by a hurricane or a tropical storm, but some of the remnants could push into our region and could potentially result in flooding concerns," remarked WENY chief meteorologist Joe Veres.
La Nina conditions were present from 2020 to early 2023. In that time, remnants of several tropical systems would bring flooding impacts to New York and Pennsylvania, including hurricanes Ian and Ida.